Close in early tradingParallelblockchaingameThe main domestic futures contracts are mixed. The container transportation index and alumina rose by more than 5%, Shanghai silver by more than 3%, industrial silicon by more than 2%, lithium carbonate, styrene (EB), caustic soda, Shanghai zinc and manganese silicon by more than 1%.ParallelblockchaingameIn terms of decline, red jujube fell by more than 4%, Shanghai tin fell by more than 2%, and coke, apple, coking coal and methanol fell by more than 1%.
Alumina continues to hit an all-time high, what are the reasons for today's surge?
Xinhu Futures comments: after the early extreme shock adjustment, alumina futures rose again recently, and hit a new high, the main contract broke the 3900, 4000, 4100 mark, once hit the limit on Tuesday.
Alumina futures prices rose sharply on the one hand, stimulated by industrial news, mainly from two Australian alumina shipments announced force majeure factors. The two plants passively shut down about 1.2 million tons of capacity in March due to a shortage of natural gas supplies caused by a natural gas pipeline fire, and the resumption of production in June was originally planned to be delayed to September because natural gas supplies have not yet been restored. Recently, the situation of tight domestic alumina supply continues, the increment of bauxite supply in Shanxi and Henan is very limited, the increase of alumina production in the two places is restrained, and there is no new capacity release in other areas. On the other hand, the consumer side has rebounded steadily in the case of continuous resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan, which leads to a lack of spot supply and a continuous tight supply of goods in circulation.
However, relative to the fundamental impact, the recent macro sentiment has a greater impact on futures prices. Fed interest rate cuts are expected to strengthen, domestic policies release multiple positive, stimulate market bullish sentiment, non-ferrous metals generally rise, and continue to hit new highs, aluminum prices are no less than aluminum prices, alumina is also favored by long funds, in the case of low positions, futures prices intensify volatility. In the case that it is difficult to have a substantial increase in the short-term supply side, the spot price of alumina is strong or high, while the futures price fluctuates sharply under the guidance of macro sentiment, and there is a greater risk of falling back once the market sentiment cools down in the later stage.
The market is optimistic about freight rates, and the Container Index (European Line) opens up sharply.
The Container Index (European line), the main contract, rose in early trading, up nearly 5% on the day. CIC Anxin Futures said that yesterday SCFIS European routes reported 3070.Parallelblockchaingame.53 points, up 22% from the previous month.Parallelblockchaingame2.2%, the feedback of the underlying index on the upward trend of spot freight rates is opened, and it is expected that the subsequent underlying index will continue to maintain the upward trend. Spot freight rates, yesterday HPL raised the European freight rate from June 15 to $7000/FEU, Maersk is relatively conservative, the 23-week opening price announced yesterday is $5500/FEU, low-cost space was sold in a short time, reflecting the current market optimistic expectations for freight rates. It is expected that the rest of the aviation division will make price increases in the future, but there may be direct price increases and price increases as sales rise, and we need to pay attention to the impact of relatively low-priced cabin transactions on the underlying index in the latter way.
