News summary

In April, China's economy rebounded, industrial production increased steadily, manufacturing investment was strong, and fixed asset investment growth increased. The growth of total retail sales of consumer goods slowed down, but the consumer market continued to recover. The employment situation is stable and the unemployment rate is falling. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation effect and real estate market risks.

Newsletter text

[The economy rebounded well in April, and the employment rate stabilized and improved.] The national economy maintained its recovery momentum in April, production demand increased, and the employment situation showed stability.

Industrial production is rising steadily, but demand side growth needs to be strengthenedTiger'sRichesRoar: In the first four months of this year, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 6% year-on-yearTiger'sRichesRoar.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the growth rate in the previous three months. The growth rate in April reached 6.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.97%. The trend of industrial growth is expected to further strengthen the endogenous motivation of enterprises as policy effects are exerted and new orders are gradually implemented.

Fixed asset investment continues to expand, and investment in high-tech industries drives growth: in the first four months, the cumulative growth rate of national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) reached 4.2%. Among them, manufacturing investment increased by 9.7% year-on-year, infrastructure investment increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and real estate development investment fell by 9.8% year-on-year. The growth rate of manufacturing investment is mainly due to the leadership of high-tech industries and the drive of advanced manufacturing clusters, and infrastructure projects have also continued to start smoothly. The effect of real estate market policies will be the focus of attention in the future.

The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has adjusted slightly, but the recovery trend of the consumer market has not diminished: from January to April, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.1% year-on-year. Although the growth rate has fallen due to factors such as reduced holiday days and a higher base, the overall market recovery remains stable.

The job market is making steady progress, and emerging growth points are constantly emerging: in the first four months of this year, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The increase in jobs and the strengthening of policy support have brought new development vitality to the job market.

[Risk factors to be vigilant] Faced with the background of economic recovery, we need to pay attention to potential risks such as insufficient policy promotion, downside risks in the real estate market, and the implementation of real estate policies that are less than expected.