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Produce50spinfreeincoinmasterResearch Institute of Sina Finance listed companies

Author: wave Diet / Hao Xian

"the liquor industry is in the most severe and complex development point in history," Zeng Congqin, chairman of Wuliangye Group, made such a judgment at the 2023 China International famous Liquor Expo.

Since the second quarter of last year, the liquor industry has experienced some problems, such as the spring sugar meeting is not as expected, moving sales are not as expected, the channel is out of stock, dealers sell goods, products are upside down, and so on. In this case, the industry began to carry out a new round of reshuffle, the concentration of market share further increased, the losses of small and medium-sized wine enterprises increased, while the performance of famous wine and large wine enterprises was relatively stable.

20 listed liquor companies achieve 4121 in 202350spinfreeincoinmasterRevenue of 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 15% over the same period last year50spinfreeincoinmaster.65%, which is the same as the total revenue growth rate of 15.13% last year. The net profit was 155.146 billion yuan, an increase of 18.88% over the same period last year, and the growth rate decreased by 1.45% over the same period last year.

Under the overall stability, the undercurrent surged, the growth of high-end liquor maintained steady growth, while the nationalized sub-high-end liquor was seriously divided, and many companies showed obvious weakness in growth, such as alcoholic liquor revenue fell by 30.14%, and Shuijingfang revenue increased by only 6%. As the regional wine enterprises have a stable basic market, in the context of the recovery of consumer demand for public banquets, they have also achieved good growth. By contrast, small wine companies dominated by low-end wines, such as Golden seed Liquor and Huangtai Liquor, have fallen into losses.

Business income: Shun Xin agricultural revenue dropped 30% in two consecutive years. Shuijingfang still hasn't recovered.

In 2023, 20 listed liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 412.112 billion yuan, of which Guizhou Moutai alone accounted for nearly 37%. The scale of liquor enterprises with a scale of more than 30 billion yuan has expanded from 3 last year to 5, with TOP5 for Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe shares, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou laojiao, and the gap between Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe shares has further narrowed.

Shiyuan has successfully squeezed into the 10 billion threshold, which makes the 10 billion yuan wine enterprises expand to eight. The highest revenue growth rates of these eight companies are Jinshiyuan (28.05%), Shanxi Fenjiu (21.8%), Gujing Gongjiu (21.18%) and Luzhou laojiao (20.34%). The growth rate is more than 20%. The lowest revenue growth rates were Shunxin Agriculture and Yanghe shares, which were-9.3% and 10.04%, respectively.

There are 10 wine enterprises with revenue growth of more than 20%, accounting for half, of which 3 companies' revenue is declining in 2022, and there are 5 wine enterprises with revenue growth of more than 20% for two consecutive years. They are Rock shares (Protection of Rights), Shiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujinggong Liquor, Luzhou laojiao.

There are two liquor enterprises whose revenue declined in 2023, namely, alcoholic wine (- 30.14%) and Shunxin agriculture (9.3%). Among them, Shunxin agriculture has declined for three consecutive years. Shuijingfang and Yanghe shares are followed by Shuijingfang and Yanghe shares. Revenue of Shuijingfang increased slightly by 0.88% in 2022 and only 6% last year. Yanghe shares grew by 18.76% in 2022 and 10.04% in 2023, respectively.

It can be seen that among the four companies with the worst revenue growth, there are three sub-high-end wine companies and one low-end wine company. Shunxin Agriculture is the leader of the light bottle wine market under 30 yuan. At present, it is facing the problem that the whole country is not advancing smoothly and the product upgrading is blocked.

Drunkard wine is a typical representative of the high end of the team. Since 2017, after sustained and rapid growth, the revenue scale of alcoholic liquor has increased from 800 million yuan to 4 billion yuan. Since 2022, the problem of channel inventory has surfaced, and the problems such as price upside down and channeling goods have also been exposed. In response, the company repeatedly made a big move to stop goods. No one knows when the adjustment will be over.

Income-to-cash ratio-contract liabilities: the contract liabilities of Golden seed Liquor, Shunxin Agriculture and Shanxi Fen Liquor are 5.5 billion lower than those of Dajiang Wuliangye.

50spinfreeincoinmasterWe use cash-to-cash ratio and advance collection to measure the operating status of listed liquor companies.

First, let's take a look at the cash-to-cash ratio, which reflects the cash flow support behind the main business income of the enterprise. The cash flow of liquor enterprises is generally better, and the cash-to-cash ratio of many companies is more than 100% for a long time, and they have the absolute right to speak downstream.

However, in the past two years, the income of liquor companies has declined significantly, which means that the willingness or ability of downstream channels to make money is decreasing, reflecting the changes in the industry environment.

Last year, five companies had a cash-to-cash ratio of less than 100%, an increase of three over 2022, including alcoholic liquor and golden seed wine with a cash ratio of less than 90%.

The income-to-cash ratio of 10 companies is declining, with Golden seed Liquor, Shunxin Agriculture and Shanxi Fenjiu falling the most, all of which have dropped from more than 100% last year to less than 100%.

Then look at the contract liabilities, liquor enterprises generally adopt the mode of operation of first payment and then goods, and the accounts received in advance play the role of performance "reservoir".

The contract liabilities of 9 liquor companies are decreasing in 2023, and the company with the largest decline is Wuliangye, followed by Yanghe shares, Shunxin Agriculture and Guizhou Moutai. Of the four companies, with the exception of Shunxin Agriculture, the other three saw revenue growth last year. The increase in revenue is accompanied by a decrease in contract liabilities, reflecting a decline in the enthusiasm of downstream dealers to make money, and may also mean that manufacturers have relaxed their payment policy.

In addition, 11 spirits companies have increased their contract liabilities, but most of them have not increased by much.