Stock speculation is based on the Jin Kirin analyst Research report, authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities.Pennbattle3weight!

Source: Yuanda

Main points of investment

The important index of the domestic stock market rose across the board this week, with the Shanghai 50 index rising the most by 1.Pennbattle3weight.8%. Among the industries in case of emergency, the largest increase in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery was 5.Pennbattle3weight.7%.

The average daily trading volume of the market this week is 951.44 billion yuan, and the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds is 4.84 billion yuan.

It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) the opportunities of new productivity and consumer industries brought about by the policy support of the two sessions, pay attention to the key directions of modern industrial systems such as digital economy, advanced manufacturing, new energy, biomedicine and low-altitude economy; 2) Investment opportunities for construction machinery, railway equipment, power grid equipment, general industrial equipment, household appliances and other sectors brought about by "large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in". 3) pay attention to the investment opportunities of market capitalization management of central state-owned enterprises; 4) with the yield of 10Y treasury bonds falling to a historically low level, the difference between the dividend yield of the bank sector and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to the historical high, and pay attention to the investment opportunities of the banking sector.

The risk of policy change exceeding expectation, the risk of economic environment change exceeding expectation, and the risk of short-term market fluctuation.

1. Important information

On the whole, the overall profit of Quan A decreased slightly in 2023, the increase of enterprise income did not increase profit, and there were obvious differences between net profit and revenue growth. In 2023, the industry achieved operating income of 72.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9% over the same period last year; net profit of 5.3 trillion yuan, an increase of-1.2% over the same period last year; and a net profit of 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of-1.8% over the same period last year.

Table 1 list of important financial indicators of the industry in the 2023 annual report (100 million yuan)

Total operating income in 2023

Growth rate of total revenue in 2023

2023 return net profit

Net profit growth rate of homecoming in 2023

Deduction of non-return net profit in 2023

Deducting the growth rate of non-homed net profit in 2023

726950

0.9%

52864

-1.2%

48688

-1.8%

Source: Wind, Yuanda Information Securities Research Institute

On the whole, the 24-year quarterly results are under pressure, and the growth rate is negative. In the first quarter of 2024, the industry achieved an operating income of 16.9 trillion yuan, an increase of-1.3% over the same period last year; a net profit of 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of-4.3% over the same period last year; and a net profit of 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of-2.1% over the same period last year.

Table 2:2024Q1 list of important financial indicators for the whole industry (100 million yuan)

2024Q1 revenue

Year-on-year growth rate of 2024Q1 revenue

Month-on-month growth rate of 2024Q1 revenue

2024Q1 return net profit

Year-on-year growth rate of 2024Q1 homing net profit

Month-on-month growth rate of 2024Q1 return net profit

2024Q1 deducts non-return net profit

2024Q1 deducts the year-on-year growth rate of non-homed net profit

2024Q1 deducts the month-on-month growth rate of non-homed net profit

168796

-1.3%

-11.1%

14335

-4.3%

63.6%

13655

-2.1%

85.1%

Source: Wind, Yuanda Information Securities Research Institute

According to figures released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on May 6, a total of 295 million domestic tourists traveled nationwide during the May Day holiday in 2024, an increase of 7.6 percent over the same period last year and 28.2 percent in comparable terms over the same period in 2019. The total spending of domestic tourists was 166.89 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7 percent over the same period last year and 13.5 percent in comparable terms over the same period in 2019. According to the analysis, during the May Day holiday this year, cultural and tourism consumption was effectively released, more and more sinking market tourist destinations were welcomed, and the consumer market showed surging vitality and great potential.

Inbound and outbound tourism recovered quickly. According to the data of the State Administration of Immigration, during the May 1 holiday this year, the national border inspection authorities guaranteed a total of 8.466 million Chinese and foreign personnel entry and exit, an increase of 35.1 percent over the same period on May 1 last year. The peak of single-day customs clearance occurred on May 3, reaching 1.801 million people. Of these, 4.768 million were mainland residents, up 38 percent over the same period last year; 2.919 million were Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents, up 20.8 percent over the same period last year; and 779000 were foreigners, an increase of 98.7 percent over the same period last year.

In Hainan, the number of inbound and outbound tourists during the May Day holiday this year continued to rise. as of 18:00 on May 5, a total of 172 flights and 23000 passengers had been checked at Meilan and Phoenix International Airport, an increase of 4.6 times over the same period last year. Duty-free shopping on outlying islands continues to be active. according to Haikou Customs statistics, during the May 1 holiday this year, Haikou Customs supervised a total of 547 million yuan for duty-free shopping on outlying islands, 85800 shoppers, and 6378 yuan per capita.

According to customs statistics, China's imports and exports of goods totaled 13.81 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2024, an increase of 5.7 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, exports totaled 7.81 trillion yuan, up 4.9 percent; imports totaled 6 trillion yuan, up 6.8 percent; and the trade surplus was 1.81 trillion yuan, narrowing 0.7 percent. In dollar terms, in the first four months, China's imports and exports totaled 1.94 trillion US dollars, an increase of 2.2 percent. Of this total, exports totaled US $1.1 trillion, up 1.5%; imports reached US $843.91 billion, up 3.2%; and the trade surplus narrowed by 3.9% to US $255.66 billion. In April, imports and exports totaled 3.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 8 percent. Of this total, exports totaled 2.08 trillion yuan, up 5.1 percent, and imports totaled 1.56 trillion yuan, up 12.2 percent.

On the evening of May 3, Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor announcedPennbattle3weightThe April non-farm payrolls report showed that non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 175000 in April, lower than the expected figure of 240000 and much lower than the previous figure of 303000.

The report shows that the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.9% in April, higher than the expected 3.8%, and the previous value of 3.8%, the highest level since January 2022. Us Treasury Secretary Yellen Yellen's more valued and more comprehensive U6 unemployment rate is 7.4%, the highest level since November 2021.

In addition, the year-on-year increase in wages was lower than expected and previous values. According to the report, the average hourly wage growth rate in the United States slowed to 3.9% year-on-year in April, compared with an expected 4%, compared with a previous value of 4.1%. The average hourly wage growth rate in the United States slowed to 0.2% month-on-month in April, compared with an expected 0.3%.

Private sector employment in the United States fell by 167000 in April, below expectations of 195000 and also below the previous figure of 232000, while manufacturing employment in the United States changed by 8000 in April, higher than the expected figure of 5000.

The data showed that US employers scaled back hiring in April, with unemployment rising unexpectedly and wage growth falling, suggesting that the US labour market is cooling after strong growth at the start of the year.

II. Market overview

1. Main index performance

The main indexes of the domestic stock market rose across the board this week. Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, gem Index, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, Kechuang 50 and Kechuang 100 index rose or decreased by 1.6%, 1.5%, 1.1%, 1.7%, 1.8%, 1.7%, 1.4%, 0.0% and 0.9% respectively in the past week.

Table 3: ups and downs of major indices

Code

Name

Weekly rise and decline

Monthly rise and fall

Rise and fall since the beginning of the year

PE TTM

Five-year valuation percentile

000001.SH

Shanghai Composite Index

1.6%

1.6%

6.0%

fourteen

73.7%

399001.SZ

Deep syndrome component index

1.5%

1.5%

2.2%

twenty-three

17.9%

399006.SZ

Gem Index

1.1%

1.1%

-0.7%

twenty-nine

11.0%

000300.SH

Shanghai and Shenzhen 300

1.7%

1.7%

6.9%

twelve

50.4%

000016.SH

Shanghai Stock Exchange 50

1.8%

1.8%

7.8%

eleven

65.3%

000905.SH

China Securities 500

1.7%

1.7%

2.0%

twenty-four

58.6%

000852.SH

CSC 1000

1.4%

1.4%

-5.3%

thirty-nine

70.5%

000688.SH

Kechuang 50

0. 0%

0. 0%

-10.0%

forty-five

44.6%

000698.SH

Kechuang 100

0.9%

0.9%

-14.6%

three hundred and twelve

94.4%

Source: Wind, Yuanda Information Securities Research Institute

2. Rise and fall of the industry in case of emergency

Among the industries in case of emergency, the top five up and down this week were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, national defense and military industry, building materials, real estate, and coal, up and down 5.7%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.4% and 4.2% respectively in the past week.

Figure 1: the rise and fall of the industry in case of emergency

Source: Wind, Yuanda Information Securities Research Institute

3. The transaction volume between the two markets

The market is active this week, with the highest trading volume of 1.103809 trillion yuan in the two cities on Monday and an average daily trading volume of 951.441 billion yuan this week.

Figure 2: turnover between the two cities

Source: Wind, Yuanda Information Securities Research Institute

4. Northbound funds

The cumulative net inflow of northbound funds this week was 4.84 billion yuan, with net inflows of 9.32 billion yuan,-2.14 billion yuan,-4.04 billion yuan, 8.01 billion yuan and-6.3 billion yuan respectively from Monday to Friday.

Figure 3: net inflow of northbound capital (100 million yuan)

Source: Wind, Yuanda Information Securities Research Institute