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In the imported soybean marketBlackjackbonusWhat is particularly noteworthy in the past month is thatBlackjackbonusThe duty payment cost of domestic imported soybeans increased significantly. As of May 21, taking Brazilian soybeans in June as an example, the import dutiable cost was 4198 yuan / ton, up 129 yuan / ton from the previous week and 427 yuan / ton from the previous month. This is mainly due to the continued rise in CBOT soybean futures prices and Brazilian soybean sticker quotations, which also further boosted the domestic oil meal market.
From the perspective of CBOT soybean futures, due to the impact of the sudden flood in Rio Grande, Brazil, the market is worried about the loss of Brazilian soybean production and the slowdown of the future export pace, US soybean futures rose rapidly during May Day and entered 1200 cents / cattail smoothly. At the same time, entering the critical period of soybean growth in North America, the weather rising water speculation is expected to be high, coupled with the low price of American beans, which is attractive to investors, the net excess funds on CFTC soybean meal and soybeans are still increasing. In addition, due to concerns about the bad crop weather in the Black Sea region and the wet weather in the planting season, the sowing schedule fell short of market expectations. The linkage rising effect of Maize and Meimei corn led to a rise in CBOT soybean futures. As of the 20th, the main contract price of CBOT soybeans closed at 1246.Blackjackbonus.75 cents / pu, up 27% from the previous week.Blackjackbonus.5 cents / pu, up 70 cents / pu month-on-month.
From the perspective of Brazilian soybean discount, Brazilian soybean CNF quotes have maintained a rising trend since the Spring Festival, and have continued to rise at a high level in recent January. In addition to the impact of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul mentioned above, the continued rise in its CNF quotation is mainly due to the continued good sales progress of Brazilian soybeans. On the one hand, due to the improvement of Brazil's domestic fuel market, its local crushing demand has improved; on the other hand, because Brazilian soybeans continue to maintain a cost-effective advantage over beautiful beans, while benefiting from continued domestic market profits, the export sales of Brazilian soybeans are making good progress. According to Abiove statistics, Brazilian soybean exports from January to April 2024 were 37.69 million tons, an increase of 10 per cent over 2023.
It should also be noted that the trading profit of Brazilian soybeans is higher than that of corn, which makes local traders more inclined to buy and sell soybeans, further pushing up local FOB prices. As of June, the price of soybeans in the Brazilian port of Paranagua was 35n, up 10 cents per cattail from the previous week, reaching a new high in 2024.
No matter at home or abroad, Brazilian soybean continues to have a sales window, and Brazilian soybean production declined in 2023 to 24 compared with the same period last year, and the continued rise in CNF has a fundamental basis. And judging from the current sales progress, there will be less and less soybeans available for sale in Brazil in the future, and its CNF quotation has some support.
Through the analysis of the two main components of the dutiable cost price of imported soybeans, it can be found that the joint rise of the CBOT soybean futures price and the Brazilian soybean premium in the past month has led to a substantial increase in the cost of domestic imported soybeans. Looking forward to the future, CBOT soybean futures will be more affected by the weather in the future, sowing and growth will affect its price trend. However, from the perspective of Brazilian soybean discount, due to the rapid progress of sales this year, the amount of Brazilian soybeans available for sale in the future is gradually decreasing. At the same time, as the current market continues to extract profits, oil factories still have the enthusiasm to buy ships, Brazilian soybean discount is supported for a period of time. Even when the futures price of CBOT soybean fluctuates weakly, it is difficult for Brazilian soybean CNF to have more room to fall, but before American beans are listed, the main source of imported soybeans in China is still Brazilian beans, and the duty payment cost of imported soybeans is expected to still have a strong support for the long-term domestic soybean market.
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