Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Core point of view: Brt80-90 range shock macro aspects are slightly negative, but have not yet turned, Europe and China continue to release macro-bullish signals, pre-trading re-inflationary logic needs this week's CPI data to verify; the market focus is still micro, inventory accumulation + spot weakness; before the arrival of geopolitical signals that have not yet significantly eased, there is still support in the short term around 80.
According to recent major variables, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States in the week of May 4 was 23.Pokervideoscashgames.10, 000, the third largest weekly increase since 2021, and another proof that the labor market was lower than expected during the May Day period. Europe's final composite PMI rose slightly to 51.7 in April, while the final PMI in the service sector rose to 53.3 from 51.5 in March, showing a trend of continuing to repair, and the ECB minutes further strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts. The Chinese side has continued to relax the property market, basically liberalizing in many places except first-tier cities.PokervideoscashgamesPurchase restrictions have been implemented. Geographically, the premium continues to fall, but the war situation continues, with frequent signals of peace talks but lack of substantive impetus.
In terms of fundamentals, seasonal accumulation may have reached a high level, the United States Kushin accumulation is obvious, the United States and Singapore are in a neutral range of refined oil products, and ARA inventory has reached a neutral high position, which is mainly caused by the backlog of diesel and naphtha. In terms of the cracking price difference of refined oil, at present, the node is about to be verified in the peak season of gasoline, the gasoline meter is still low, and the price spread of gasoline cracking tends to weaken marginally. whether the peak season can be fulfilled as scheduled is also an important micro indicator that needs to be paid attention to in the coming month. In addition, in the run-up to the JMMC meeting on June 1st, the consistency of OPEC will also become a focus of market attention. Iraq first stated that it would not agree to production reduction measures, and then insisted on any decision made by OPEC. This contrast also implies some differences within the OPEC. Considering the rising deficit ratio in Iraq and the rising oil price in fiscal balance, at least high oil price is the unanimous demand of Iraq and other OPEC members at present.
OPEC production reduction: too much Kazakhstan and Iraq have promised to compensate for the production reduction. Although the implementation rate of OPEC is average, it is still willing to raise the price verbally.
Macro: neutral US labor market and PMI market weakened; euro zone composite PMI was revised up to 51.7 in April, and service sector recovery accelerated; China's Caixin service industry PMI 52.5 in April, expanding for 16 consecutive months.
SPR: against the backdrop of neutral high oil prices, the United States halted the supplementary program of 3 million barrels per month for SPR from August to September.
Geography: the neutral Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have made some progress, and the geographical premium has been given back, but the phased conflicts are still there, paying attention to further developments.
Spot and downstream demand: the North Sea spot rising water becomes weaker; the global crude oil inventory is in a high range, the list needs to continue to move down on the eve of the peak gasoline season, American and Asian oil products are neutral, and European oil products are overstocked under the influence of diesel and naphtha.
Shale oil: neutral production remained flat at 13.1 million barrels per day last week, with the number of rigs falling by-3 to 496. it remains low, with limited boost to production in the medium to long term.
Follow this week's CPI data guide
Is it possible to continue trading with inflation?
The minutes of Friday's ECB meeting showed that participants generally believed that further progress had been made in the fight against inflation. Against this backdrop, the market expects a sharp increase in the probability of a rate cut in June. This week, the market focused on the final value of inflation in April. If it remains unchanged at 2.4%, a downward trend has been confirmed for overall inflation, and it may become a reality for the euro zone to cut interest rates first at a later stage.
On the other hand, the path to inflation in the United States is not as optimistic as in Europe. This week's April CPI data will determine whether the unexpected rise in inflation in the United States in the first quarter can be sustained. According to current market expectations, the CPI released on Wednesday is 3.4% year-on-year, the core CPI is 3.6% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point lower than last month, and the overall inflation stickiness is still there. Therefore, Fed officials have spoken out many times recently.
As far as the relevant large categories of assets are concerned, from the perspective of anti-inflation, oil prices and gold and copper have been somewhat divergent. At present, crude oil may be more cost-effective than other assets, so we need to pay attention to the possibility of continuing trading in re-inflation.
Inventory backlog and spot weakening
Iraq's statement of position is inconsistent, and OPEC differences arise again?
Iraq's position is mixed, and Iraq's oil minister hinted on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to extend the production cuts. On Sunday, the tactic reversed, saying that it was OPEC's job to extend the production cuts, and the country would stick to any decision made by the organization. As the second largest oil producer of OPEC, Iraq failed to fully implement the existing production reduction plan in the first half of the year, but Iraq has already expressed its position to compensate for the reduction of its unreduced production during the May Day period. At present, the Iraqi Oil Minister has made such a statement, which has also aroused the market's attention to OPEC.
It is speculated that there are two reasons, on the one hand, it is possible for Iraq to test the intention of other OPEC member countries to win more production share; second, on the eve of the JMMC meeting on June 1st, the release of OPEC-related signals can also induce the direction of market attention. Taking into account Iraq's rising fiscal balance of oil prices year by year, the demands of OPEC members for high oil prices are relatively consistent.
American and Asian inventories are all at the highest level of the year.
From the perspective of inventory structure, inventory is still at a high level during the year, and the accumulation rate of global water + shore tank inventory is about 1 million barrels per day, which is the same as or slightly higher than that of five-year storage.
From a sub-regional point of view, the accumulation of the Asian side is mainly caused by the early concentration of Hong Kong. In addition, the superposition is the peak of refinery overhaul in Eurasia, and most of the inventories in the main areas are high during the year. The access to the library may be opened at the end of Q2 or Q3.
The US gasoline meter needs to be weak, while the spot performance in the North Sea is weak.
On the spot side, CFD and DFL prices weakened at the same time, with CFD and DFL closing at-$8.20 / barrel and $0.24 / barrel respectively as of May 13.
In terms of demand, the current demand in the United States has fallen to a historically low level except 2020, which is about to test the demand for gasoline during the peak season, and further observation is needed to observe the sustainability of the demand for gasoline meter.
The siltation of refined oil inventory in Europe is also the most serious.
From a regional perspective, refined oil inventories in the United States are currently at an inventory neutral level, and oil inventories in Singapore have also returned to five-year neutrality. In contrast, refined oil inventories in the ARA region have accumulated.
In terms of oil types, the accumulation of refined oil products in the ARA area mainly comes from diesel and naphtha. The current node is approaching the peak season for gasoline, and U.S. gasoline inventories are already marginally depleted. We need to be vigilant about the possibility of demand being falsified during the later peak season.
Spread & Positions
Monthly differences in various regions have been corrected
As of May 15, the WTI monthly spread closed at US$0.42/barrel, and the 1-6 spread was US$2.5/barrel;Brent's recent month was US$0.42/barrel, and the 1-6 spread closed at US$2.4/barrel;SC's recent monthly spread closed at 1.7 yuan/barrel.
The price difference between gasoline cracking has weakened
Diesel crack difference remains low
Aviation coal crack has a tendency to stabilize
Net decrease in WTI funds
In the week of May 7, WTI long funds decreased by 37810 lots, short positions increased by 16380 lots, and net long funds decreased by 54190 lots.
Brent Fund Net Loss
In the week of May 7, Brent's long funds decreased by 50630 lots, short positions increased by 10330 lots, and net long losses decreased by 60970 lots.
Xiao Lanlan
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Wang Qian
Qualification Certificate No.: F03123709
Trading consultation certificate number: Z0019934
Research contact information: wangqian@zjtfqh.com
