This week (2024-5-6-2024-5-10) the overall performance of the chemical sector ranked seventh, up and down + 4.02%, the trend is in the upper reaches of the overall market trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose or fell by + 1.60%, and the gem Index rose or fell by + 1.06%. Shenwan Chemical Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.41 percentage points and outperformed the gem Index by 2.95 percentage points. The prosperity of the chemical industry will continue the trend of differentiation in 2024. It is recommended to pay attention to synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatographic media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, MDI and other industries.Nnnjlcom(1) the time has come for the singularity of synthetic biology. Under the background of energy structure adjustment, fossil-based materials may face subversive impact in some parts, and low-energy-consuming products or industries are expected to get a longer growth window. For traditional chemical enterprises, the future competition lies in the cost of energy consumption and carbon tax. Excellent traditional chemical enterprises will make use of green energy alternatives, integration and large-scale advantages to reduce energy consumption costs, or new production capacity may be transferred to larger overseas markets, so as to achieve the goal of double reduction. At the same time, with the decline in the cost of bio-based materials and the breakthrough of bio-based materials for "non-grain" raw materials, bio-based materials are expected to usher in a period of explosive demand and a higher-than-expected high-boom track, which is expected to improve both earnings valuation and performance in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the field of synthetic biology, focusing on Kaisai Biology, Huaheng Biology and other industry leading companies. (2) the quota policy is just around the corner, and the third generation refrigerants are expected to enter a high boom cycle. Since 24 years, the supply of the third generation refrigerant has entered the stage of "quota + continuous reduction". At the same time, the second generation refrigerant has been reduced rapidly, the price of the fourth generation refrigerant is difficult to replace because of patent problems, and the refrigerant supply side continues to shrink. At the same time, with the development of heat pump and cold chain market and the continuous expansion of air conditioning stock market, superimposed with the expansion of refrigerant demand in Southeast Asian countries, the demand side maintains steady growth. In the future, the gap between supply and demand in the refrigerant market will continue to expand, refrigerant prices will rise steadily, and companies with a higher proportion of quotas will fully benefit. Suggested attention: Juhua shares, Sanmei shares, Haohua Technology, Yonghe shares. (3) Electronic special gas is the "grain" of the electronic industry and the core link of the localization of the industrial chain. From the point of view of the global electronic special gas market, the current industry presents the characteristics of high technical barriers and high added value. From the point of view of the domestic electronic special gas market, the contradiction between the rapid upgrading of the downstream wafer manufacturing industry and the dispersion and insufficient production capacity of the domestic high-end electronic special gas market is aggravating day by day. In other words, the looseness and scarcity of the industrial chain has also brought greater domestic substitution opportunities, take the lead in the layout of high-end production capacity, enterprises with rich technology reserves are expected to occupy the first opportunity and usher in a greater space for development. From the demand side, integrated circuit / panel / photovoltaic three-wheel drive, the demand for high-end production capacity is increasingly urgent. Among them, the pull of semiconductors on special gas is mainly represented by the simultaneous increase in volume and price brought by the high-end integrated circuit; the flat panel display comes from the increase in demand for special gas products brought about by industrial upgrading and iteration; photovoltaic is mainly represented by the rapid growth of installed capacity and momentum growth. To sum up, the core competitiveness of the electronic special gas industry can be summarized as follows: purification technology + mixed formula + the potential of multi (full) category supply. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the high-quality companies that are expected to move towards the full range of platform companies by virtue of the core products, and finally realize the localization of electronic special gas: Jinhong Gas, Watt Gas and Zhongchuan Special Gas. (4) Light hydrocarbon chemical industry has become a global trend. One of the most significant changes in the olefin industry in the past decade is the trend of lightweight raw materials, that is, the raw materials for olefin production have gradually changed from heavy naphtha to lighter light alkanes such as ethane, propane and so on. After ten years of development, the proportion of lightweight raw materials in ethylene in the world has gradually increased, and in addition to Asia, there is also the growth of coal and oil routes.NnnjlcomThe increment in all his areas comes from lightweight raw materials. The light hydrocarbon chemical industry represented by ethane cracking and propane dehydrogenation has the characteristics of short process, high yield and low cost, which set off a wave of lightweight olefin structure all over the world. At the same time, light hydrocarbon chemical industry has the characteristics of low carbon emission, low energy consumption and low water consumption, and its by-product is mainly hydrogen, which can effectively reduce the cost of hydrogen consumption in the recycling industry chain, and can provide high purity and low cost hydrogen energy to the outside world. in line with the global consensus of low-carbon energy saving under the background of carbon neutralization. We believe that the lightweight of raw materials under the background of carbon neutralization has become an irreversible trend in the global olefin industry, and the leading value of light hydrocarbon chemical industry is expected to be reevaluated. It is recommended to pay attention to the light hydrocarbon chemical track, focusing on satellite chemistry. (5) the industrialization process of COC polymer is accelerated, and the domestic breakthrough is expected. COC/COP (Cycloolefin Copolymer / Polymer) is a kind of materials with superior properties, which depends on the C5 industry chain. Cycloolefin monomers are prepared from C5 raw materials, and then COC/COP is prepared by copolymerization or self-polymerization. Among them, cyclic olefin copolymer (COC) has excellent optical properties such as high transparency in UV-visible region, low water absorption and high biocompatibility. At present, the mainstream mobile phone camera lenses use plastic lenses made of COC/COP. At the same time, COC/COP has also expanded its applications in pre-perfusion, medical packaging, food packaging and so on in recent years. In the past two years, the process of domestic industrialization of COC/COP has accelerated, mainly due to: 1) some domestic enterprises have made certain breakthroughs in industrialization after years of R & D and accumulation. 2) in the field of optics, the downstream industrial chains such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles have been obviously transferred to China, and the problem of neck jam in Japan has become increasingly prominent, and the domestic substitution willingness of downstream manufacturers has been strengthened under the concern of supply chain security. so as to accelerate the process of upstream and downstream industrialization development. At present, the price of this material is still too high in many fields, and the product is located in the high-end application field. We believe that the main bottleneck of the market is still on the supply side, and domestic enterprises are expected to form a breakthrough and open up the market space. It is recommended to pay attention to the production process of COC polymer, with emphasis on Accri. (6) if the international giants withdraw their bids or cut production, potash prices are expected to bottom out and rise again. We believe that potash prices are expected to hit bottom and pick up, and the industry has entered a destocking cycle. Canpotex withdrew its new offer and Nutrien announced a reduction in production, leading to a decline in potash supply in the short term, which is expected to ease the inventory pressure on manufacturers. Superimposed by Russia to terminate the "Black Sea Grain Export Agreement", wheat and corn futures prices have risen sharply, and farmers' willingness to grow grain has increased, pushing up the demand for potash fertilizer. Generally speaking, the relationship between supply and demand of potash fertilizer is out of balance in the short term, and the inventory is mainly concentrated in the upstream chemical fertilizer production enterprises, so it may be easier for enterprises to control prices. Countries around the world are expected to increase potash replenishment efforts in the autumn. Potash prices will be reversed. It is suggested to pay attention to the field of potash fertilizer, focusing on potassium International, Salt Lake shares, Zangge Mining, Oriental Tower and other industry leaders. (7) MDI oligopoly, the supply pattern of the industry is expected to improve. Benefiting from the expansion of the application end of polyurethane materials, the demand for MDI has improved steadily in the past 20 years, and MDI is still recognized as a high-tech barrier product, and the core technology has not been dispersed. There are a total of 8 MDI manufacturers around the world, of which the production capacity is mainly concentrated in Wanhua Chemical, BASF, Kosttronic, Huntsman and Dow. The total production capacity of 5 manufacturers reached 90.85%. At present, affected by the economic downturn, MDI prices maintain a shock range at the bottom, but the profit per ton is still considerable. As Wanhua acquires huge power and the overall European production capacity continues to operate at a low level, the supply pattern of MDI is expected to improve in the future. As the demand side is gradually repaired, MDI will become one of the few chemicals that can cross the entire economic cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to the field of polyurethane, focusing on Wanhua Chemical and other enterprises. Chemical prices track the top five price increases this week: NYMEX natural gas (+ 7.44%), soda ash (+ 6.82%), acrylic acid (+ 6.80%), liquid chlorine (+ 5.78%) and potassium chloride (+ 5.75%). The top five price drops this week: TDI (- 4.70%), nitric acid 98% (- 4.55%), phenol (- 4.39%), spandex 40D (- 3.45%), PTMEG (- 3.17%). The top five price increases this week: polyester staple (+ 1973.68%), PET (+ 44.81%), adipic acid (+ 32.11%), calcium carbide PVC (+ 31.30%), bisphenol A (+ 30.02%). The top five price declines this week: yellow phosphorus (- 1666.67%), PTA (- 72.83%), maleic anhydride method BDO (- 41.79%), vinyl acetate (- 38.84%), PVA (- 35.34%). Chemical supply side tracking this week, the production capacity of 158 major chemical products in the industry has been affected, an increase of 4 over last week, of which 28 were newly overhauled and 24 resumed. The new overhaul this week is mainly focused on synthetic ammonia, ethylene glycol and PTA, and a total of 30 enterprises are expected to restart production in May 2024. Risk prompts policy disturbance; technology diffusion; new technology breakthroughs; global intellectual property disputes; global trade disputes; carbon emissions tightening brings the risk of seizing production capacity; oil price sharp fall risk; economic downturn risk. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.