21st Century Economic reporter Tang Jing reporting from Beijing
May 22ndMegamillionlotteryresultsRecently, the first 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds began to be listed and traded. It is reported that the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds listed today are bookkeeping treasury bonds, which can be listed and circulated on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange or the over-the-counter bank bond market.
On the morning of the same day, 24 Special Administrative region 01, which is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, rose 25 per cent to trigger a second suspension and resumed trading at 15:27. The quotation of "24 Special country 01" before the second suspension is 124.Megamillionlotteryresults. 999 yuan, the bond yield from 2.Megamillionlotteryresults.57% dropped to 1.5276%. According to a previous article by the Financial Times, the media in charge of the central bank, judging from the normal operation of the market in recent years, 2.5% to 3% may be a reasonable range for long-term treasury bond yields. In the last five minutes before the closing of the bond market on the exchange, the price of "24 Special country 01" fell sharply again, closing at 101.316 yuan, up only 1.32% on the day, and the yield rebounded to 2.5070%.
At noon on the same day, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that "Special Administrative 2401" rose more than 13%. It was suspended during the day and resumed trading at 13:14. Before the suspension, the offer of "Special 2401" was 113.000 yuan, and the rate of return fell from 2.57% to 1.9919%. By the close of trading in the afternoon, "Special 2401" continued to soar 19.70% to 119.700 yuan, while the yield fell further to 1.7256%.
It is worth noting that the interbank market, dominated by institutional investors, performed calmly throughout the day. Wind data show that as of press time, "24 special treasury bonds 01" brokers quoted the latest transaction yield of 2.5700%, the same as the coupon rate.
Li Yong, chief analyst at Soochow Gusheng, warned that the price of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on the exchange rose sharply today, indicating that investors in the exchange bond market have a downward appetite for risk, but large price fluctuations have deviated from the stable characteristics of bond yields. we need to look at investment risk rationally. In this scenario, if interest rates rise, investors may lose capital gains when they want to sell, and coupon income cannot cover the losses.
Another brokerage firm told reporters that the participants in the exchange bond market are mainly individual investors and non-bank institutions, and the scale is relatively small compared to the interbank market, and this abnormal fluctuation is more like a small trading volume affecting prices, which is the embodiment of short-term supply and demand.
Tian Lihui, dean of the Institute of Financial Development of Nankai University, said bluntly that price fluctuations on the first day are often a reflection of different perceptions of issuance pricing by market participants, and that the prices of investment products such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will return to value more quickly, and there will generally be no sustained long-term rise or fall.
Industry insiders also suggest that market investors should pay attention to the interest rate risk of long-term bond investment, adhere to the concept of prudent and rational investment, and prevent the possible losses caused by too short-term investment behavior.
Bank over-the-counter sales used to be "Nikko"
According to public information, the first 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, issued on May 17, are interest-bearing bonds with a fixed interest rate of 40 billion yuan, with a coupon rate of 2.57% determined by a consortium of underwriters of 56 financial institutions after competitive bidding.
Three days later, China Merchants Bank and Zhejiang Merchants Bank took the lead in opening special treasury bonds purchase channels to individual investors, and the purchase time was limited to the same day. On May 20th, the two banks sold out a combined sales quota of 530 million yuan. At the same time, on social media, many netizens posted screenshots of their subscription. Some netizens started with 160000 yuan and said bluntly that they planned to hold it at maturity. "they charge 2000 yuan every six months to reward themselves."
The reporter also noted that banks that have opened purchase channels have also imposed restrictions on the risk tolerance level of special treasury bond investors. According to the WeChat of Zhejiang Merchants Bank on May 17, customers can purchase ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (the first issue) from 100 yuan in 2024, with a risk grade of R2, and the issue time is 10:00-15:30 on May 20. Customers can purchase through the mobile bank APP of Zhejiang Merchants Bank. The customer service staff of China Merchants Bank said that the risk grade of the bond product is R3, the interest rate is 2.57%, the term is 30 years, and the interest is paid every six months. It cannot be paid in advance after purchase, but transactions can be carried out.
So is the 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bond worth buying? A financial manager of a joint-stock bank in Sanyuanqiao area of Beijing told reporters that it depends on the willingness of investors to hold for a long time, the ability to judge the market and whether there are alternative investment targets with higher returns.
She pointed out to reporters that the holding period of the current treasury bonds is as long as 30 years, and if customers are anxious to cash in midway and can only trade in the secondary market, they will face the risk of price fluctuations, and they may make a profit or lose money when selling. If the investor intends to hold it at maturity, the customer will receive coupon every six months and the principal will be paid after the maturity, no matter how the bond price fluctuates, it will be paid at par value. If investors can accept the coupon rate and are willing to hold it for a long time, they can consider investing in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. The product can lock in interest rates over a longer term than three-or five-year time deposits. "
In the interview, a number of experts suggested the risk of price fluctuations in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. For example, Zhou Yiqin, a senior financial policy expert, told reporters that since the duration of this ultra-long-term special treasury bond is very long, and the fluctuation of the bond price is directly linked to the duration, the fluctuation of the market interest rate will have a greater impact on the bond price, so, for individual investors who are not prepared to hold maturity but for the purpose of obtaining capital gains, they must have considerable investment experience and certain risk-bearing capacity.
The Q & An on the purchase of treasury bonds by individual investors recently released by the Ministry of Finance also shows that the trading price of bookkeeping treasury bonds fluctuates with the market situation, and investors may gain trading gains as a result of rising prices or face the risk of losses due to falling prices. Therefore, the individual investors of bookkeeping treasury bonds who do not hold maturity but take profits from transactions should have certain investment experience and risk-bearing ability.
In addition, Li Yong warned that when choosing the investment channel of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, investors should also consider liquidity and transaction costs. Wealth management products or money funds easy to redeem, the rate is very low, liquidity problem is not big. In contrast, the over-the-counter bond market also has a certain degree of liquidity and supports buying and selling at any time, but individual investors may have to bear more transaction costs.
Bookkeeping treasury bonds are very different from savings treasury bonds.
The reporter learned that the main types of treasury bonds that investors come into contact with are savings treasury bonds and bookkeeping treasury bonds. Bookkeeping treasury bonds can be traded in the inter-bank bond market, the exchange bond market and the over-the-counter bond market of commercial banks, of which the latter two markets are open to individual investors. At the same time, individual investors can also indirectly participate in treasury bond investment by applying for treasury bond ETF and other asset management products. Since the beginning of this year, the average annualized return of Shanghai bond ETF has reached 7.48%, of which the 30-year bond ETF annualized yield is as high as 17.84%.
In the question and answer on the purchase of treasury bonds by individual investors released on May 17, the Ministry of Finance said that the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issued this year are bookkeeping treasury bonds with three maturities of 20 years, 30 years and 50 years, and the specific purchase operation shall be handled in accordance with the bookkeeping treasury bond purchase process. In the primary market, bookkeeping treasury bonds are issued mainly to institutional investors through bookkeeping underwriting syndicates, and claims are recorded by electronic bookkeeping in the Central Clearing Company. After listing, individual investors can also buy from institutional investors in the secondary market.
Specifically, when individual investors purchase bookkeeping treasury bonds, they can open personal bond accounts and capital accounts in advance through any counter, online bank or mobile bank of the counter business of the national interbank bond market, and open bookkeeping treasury bond trading business.MegamillionlotteryresultsIt is also possible to open an ordinary A-share securities account and a capital account with a securities company in advance.
According to the market demand, the over-the-counter business institutions of the national inter-bank bond market independently choose certain types of bonds for investors to buy, and individual investors can purchase them through their counter, online banking or mobile banking. Bookkeeping treasury bonds listed and traded on the stock exchange can be purchased by individual investors through the outlets of securities companies or the APP of securities companies.
In terms of investment risks, Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Securities and Futures Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, warned that ordinary individual investors are mainly faced with two major risks in purchasing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. First, the possible inflation in the future will reduce the actual return on investing in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds; second, ordinary investors generally do not hold ultra-long-term special treasury bonds at maturity, thus they may face market risks, that is, they may not be able to get an ideal price at the time of transfer.
Yang Haiping said frankly that managing the above two kinds of risks requires a certain amount of professional knowledge as well as a certain ability to bear risks. Ultra-long-term special treasury bonds may not be suitable for all ordinary individual investors, so investor appropriateness management is needed. This is also the reason why banks assess the risk of investors and have certain requirements for the level of risk.
On the whole, the pace of issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is relatively slow. According to the issuance arrangements previously announced by the Ministry of Finance, the period for issuing ultra-long-term special treasury bonds this year is 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years, which is divided into 22 issues. the first issue will be on May 17 and the issue will be completed in mid-November. the interest is paid half a year. The latest issue is the 2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (second issue) (20-year), which will be invited by competitive tender from 10:35 to 11:35 on May 24, with a total face value of 40 billion yuan.
