Securities Times NewsbingositeswithbonusThe CPO concept fluctuated higher in intraday trading on the 16th. As of press time, Shengyi Electronics rose nearly 19%, once hitting the daily limit; Ziguang shares (000938) rose daily limit, Robteco (300757) rose more than 8%, Huafeng Technology, Zhaolong Internet, Yuanjie Technology, etc. rose more than 6%.
CITIC Securities pointed out that since the birth of GPT-3, the development of AI large models has been in line with Scaling Law, and the AI computing infrastructure is evolving towards trillion-parameter scenarios, accelerating the upgrade of digital optical modules to 800G. In high-speed transmission scenarios, traditional optical communication stacking and multi-channel solutions will face high cost and high energy consumption challenges, and the penetration rate of silicon optical modules is expected to be further improved. According to forecast data from Yole and LightCounting, the silicon optical module market size will be US$700 million in 2023. It is expected that the silicon optical module market size will reach US$4.4 billion in 2028, and the CAGR from 2023 to 2028 will be 42%.
The agency said that benefiting from the large-scale AI infrastructure construction requirements brought by the AI model, cloud manufacturers have put forward higher requirements for the speed, cost and power consumption of data-pass optical modules. Reviewing the development history of digital optical modules, the use of a new generation of optical modules will enter a period of rapid volume after the price balances with the price of previous generation optical modules. Silicon optical modules are expected to gradually reflect their power consumption and cost advantages in the 800G era, thus rapidly increasing penetration from 2025. At the same time, silicon optical modules are quite different from traditional optical modules in all manufacturing aspects. Domestic manufacturers are expected to fully seize the historical opportunity of major changes in the technical route and continue to improve their market share in high-value links in the industrial chain such as silicon optical chips, key raw materials and equipment, and increase their share and profitability in advantageous links such as module manufacturing. Optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the increase in the penetration of silicon optical modules, it is recommended to focus on three main investment lines: main line 1, the upstream core component manufacturers with leading technical capabilities in China; main line 2, the optical module manufacturers with first-mover advantages in the manufacturing of silicon optical modules; main line 3, raw material and equipment suppliers that acquire core assets of the industrial chain overseas.
Proofread: Peng Qihua
