(Zhuochuang Information analyst Bi Hongbing)

[introduction] in April, the variety of steel fluctuated and the average price fell, and the demand was expected to be realized relatively slowly.Luckytigercasino60nodepositThe strength of the rebound this month. In May, the steel market continues to pay attention to the progress of demand realization brought about by the supply-demand game pattern and whether the demand expectations can be further realized under the influence of policies, whether the expected landing or not and the actual strength of the game or continue to affect the market to form an attempt to rise.

The coexistence of guided decline and resonant decline in the steel market and the weakening of variety differentiation.

Most steel varieties fell in April, and the lack of actual start of terminal projects led to a weakening of demand, which restricted the rebound in prices. The related varieties of the iron and steel industry chain fell 14% and 2% during the month, and the varieties with a drop of more than 3% were coke, cold-rolled coil and structural steel, while other varieties declined slightly. Only iron ore and billet rose slightly. Coke decreased by as much as 8%Luckytigercasino60nodeposit.9% has been the main reason for the overall downward push in costs this month. From the steel price index of Zhuochuang Information, as of April 29, the steel price index of Zhuochuang Information is 963.Luckytigercasino60nodeposit.95 points, up 26.21 points, or 2.8%, from 937.74 points on March 29. The year-on-year decline of 1007.02 points was 4.28%, narrowing the year-on-year decline.

From a vertical point of view, the prices of key commodities in the upstream and downstream of the iron and steel industry show a conductive decline, the overall transmission smoothness is relatively considerable, the larger decline of commodities are mostly concentrated in the raw materials. The main driving force for the decline of the entire iron and steel industry is the impact of the cost end. Coke launched three rounds of rise and landing after the seventh and eighth rounds of lifting and landing, with the overall monthly decline reaching 8.9%. The slow recovery effect on the demand side suppresses the rise in steel prices, which affects commodity prices at the back end of the industrial chain.

From a horizontal point of view, the steel varieties in the back end of the iron and steel industry showed a resonant decline, and the variety differentiation weakened. The decline of cold-rolled coil was slightly larger, reaching 3.83%, the decline of structural steel was also more than 3%, and the decline of other varieties was less than 3%, which was more affected by the periodic weakening and downward performance of the entire iron and steel industry. What is worth paying attention to is that the mainstream steel varieties have been de-stocked to varying degrees this month, affecting the further trading heat of the middleman. At the same time, it is worth noting that the commodity activity of futures varieties is slightly stronger than that of other commodities.

From the perspective of the overall iron and steel fundamentals, in terms of start-up, the start-up of coke, rebar, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, section steel, structural steel and wire drawing materials all declined, while the start-up of other commodities rebounded. From the perspective of profit level, coke, rebar, welded pipe, section steel and stainless steel are negative, while the profits of other varieties are positive. The profits of most varieties have been repaired to varying degrees this month. The overall changes in the overall heat of production scheduling of enterprises this month are mainly concentrated in processing enterprises. Generally speaking, the steel market in April is more in the further game stage of expectation and demand.

The fluctuation of the steel market in the future is expected to rise and the average price may move up.

In May, steel market prices are expected to fall first and then rise under the double rise of supply and demand, and the average price has moved up slightly under the influence of many uncertain factors. It is mainly affected by the double-rise game of supply and demand, the downward adjustment of bids from leading manufacturers, changes in inventory levels, varying macro indicators, seasonal factors and so on.

The double-rise game between supply and demand continues to strengthen.

From the supply side, consider both raw materials and intermediate products. On the one hand, the realization of raw materials to finished steel. Zhuochuang information research statistics show that as of April 25, the blast furnace operation rate is still at the relatively medium-high level of 84.06%, rising somewhat from the end of last month. There is still some room from the previous high of 86.43%. Combined with the historical trough value of 66.73% and the peak of 86.43% of the blast furnace operating rate since 2021, it is now on the water level of 87.97% of the historical high and low operating rate. Compared with the same period last year, the current level is slightly higher than that of the same period last year. For the sake of the continuity and stability of enterprise production, the current production of raw materials at the starting level will continue for a period of time, so that it will eventually be converted into pig iron, billet and steel products. With the heating up of seasonal production in the future, the supply is expected to continue to increase, and the supply pressure on the raw material side will increase.

On the other hand, it is an index of maintenance loss of steel varieties. Taking the hot-rolled coils of mainstream products as an example, the maintenance loss of hot-rolled coils in May was 1.348 million tons, which was less than the actual maintenance loss of 1.7164 million tons last month, that is, the expected performance of incremental supply, thus restraining the rise in steel prices.

From the demand side, we also need to consider the intermediate requirements and terminal requirements. On the one hand, the transaction demand of the market middleman, the change of the heat of the market trading atmosphere has a direct impact on the middleman's demand for stock. From the current steel variety survey feedback, the middleman transactions are more cautious, affected by demand uncertainty and capital cost, how fast the merchants enter and leave, and gradually get rid of inventory. In the period when the capital market is more active, the trading heat of middlemen is also the fastest. On the other hand, it is the rigid demand caused by the change of terminal order. The stable production demand of the terminal brings part of the demand. Stable production of cars and home appliances diverts some steel demand, while real estate demand and infrastructure demand remain weak in the short term. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the landing progress of large-scale infrastructure projects before the end of June.

The bids of leading companies are often reduced.

For steel varieties, especially plate varieties, the futures guidance price of leading enterprises represents the future direction. Through the correlation verification of historical data, it is found that the direction and range of price adjustment are more important to the price. In general, the upward adjustment of steel mills in ≥ 100-200 yuan / ton has a certain upward impact on the market, of which higher than this range has a relatively strong upward driving force. On the contrary, it will restrict the rise of prices. The performance of this issue is mainly restriction.

From May Baowu, Shougang, Anben, Shangang and other large factories for hot-rolled coil, medium and heavy plate, cold-rolled coil, coated coil, etc., 100-150 yuan / ton. On the whole, the steel mill guidance price adjustment on the future market support effect at the beginning of the second quarter is not as good as expected. In the later stage, we need to continue to pay attention to the monthly price adjustment direction of the leading enterprises.

The median level of steel inventory in the passive destocking cycle of industrial products

　　卓创资讯通过研究统计局工业企业产成品和PPI同比数据，从中发现，当下正处于价格下降周期中的被动去库存阶段。同时，卓创资讯监测钢材（热轧、冷轧、中厚板、线材、螺纹钢）五大主流品种的库存数据发现，截止到4月25日库存水平在1697.24万吨，远高于历史平均水平1255.21万吨。

　　首先，长周期库存水平来看，选取2006年至今近18年的库存数据，当下的库存水位线距离历史最低值539.084万吨和最高值2598.51万吨处于56.24%的水位线水平，整体库存压力降温。

　　其次，中短周期库存水平来看，选取2022年至今近3年的库存数据，当下的库存水位线距离两年内的最低值1048.27万吨和最高值2215.012万吨处55.62%的水位线水平。

　　再次，从月内短期水平来看，4月份的库存水平较3月份出现303.55万吨的减量。综合来看，当下的钢铁库存水平处于历史中位水平附近，整体库存压力有所降温，对价格形成一定中性略偏多的支撑影响。

　　宏观指标回暖

　　国际因素luckytigercasino60nodeposit：货币政策叠加主流指标变化

　　2024年美联储降息的预期持续延迟，年内或推迟到12月份，同时预期并不会出现超低利率的概率大。而欧元区大概率在6月份出现降息操作。国际发达经济体对于降息的态度和操作方式略显分歧。

　　从钢材出口量的季节性表现来看，选取2004-2023年相关指标数据，3月份钢材出口量处于季节性回升阶段，拉动钢材消费水平增减，整体对于价格支持尚可。从海关公布的3月份出口量数据来看988.8万吨处于中位略偏高的水平，在2004-2024年历史最低值和最高值分位线水平的86.15%位置上。未来看或在二季度整体继续回升。而根据海关总署统计数据显示，一季度累计出口钢材2580万吨，同比增长28.49%。同时，影响外销的因素海运费受近期地缘政治风险降温和货运量减少的双重影响，出现一定程度的回落现象，从而降低了未来的出口成本。

　　在此除美国通胀和失业率数据需要关注之外，同样需要继续关注美债收益率和美元指数的联动表现。在美国经济下行压力日益加大、美联储降息周期延期的背景下，预计美债收益率继续走高的空间或升温，后续随着市场动态变化。需要了解的是美债收益率的走高是利空大宗商品市场的，而且是多方位的。

　　汇率频繁调整背后更多是货币支付流通低位的变化。目前来看，环球银行金融电信协会（Swift）发布的人民币月度报告和数据统计显示，3月份人民币全球支付占比为4.7%，较之2月的4%有所回升，继续稳居全球第四大货币。在此之前，2023年11月，人民币全球支付占比为4.61%，超过日元的3.83%。目前人民币活跃度已经连续五个月超过日元，位居全球第四。通过官方针对汇率的一系列政策来看，当下汇率走势基本在预期范围内。未来更多关注汇率调整下人民币在全球支付地位的转变和钢材等工业品出口水平受到的影响。同时对于美元指数等的关注度在未来依然是较强的。

　　综合，国际上来看，加息与否、美元指数的走向、美债收益率的短期表现都会影响到大宗商品市场的变化，进而影响到相关价格的表现；而作为拉动GDP的三驾马车，在稳经济、促消费的大背景下，未来出口量的变化同样对于整个经济影响较大。尤其国内大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新实施方案在诸多地区的展开，从投资和消费两个角度起到示范效果。

　　国内因素：地产端政策继续发力

　　地产政策：当前地产销售仍然有待进一步修复，房地产融资协调机制将加速落实，各地方政府对供需两端的支持力度也有望进一步加强。市场对于地产情绪逐步从悲观中走出，试图有所稳定。同时结合“保交楼”的持续。尤其是优化住房限购，城中村改造等政策措施的密集落地。而扩容房企白名单力度增强，有望解决房企债务问题和当前地产链负循环，进一步稳定钢铁相关行业在内的上下游产业链，其中地产前后端相关的建筑钢材、涂镀板卷、水泥、玻璃等基建品种或有一定需求缓解概率出现。尤其地区性取消限购和以旧换新等措施在部分趋于的展开，核心解决地产去库存问题，从而稳定上下游相关行业的产业链。

　　国内来看，政策市的表现依然强劲，在未来将会继续占据主导地位。尤其在需求出现阶段性恢复不足的情况下，通过消费推动和新增投资拉动都会给期货盘面和现货市场供需结构带来影响。

　　季节性因素表现

　　卓创资讯监测分析钢铁主流品种螺纹钢和板材等发现，5月份上涨预期依然存在。考虑到天气转暖后，市场关注点将会逐步从双焦转移到铁矿石，成本影响对钢铁市场价格变化有一定传导效果，成本传导依然是影响钢铁行业价格的重要因素。同时要也要考虑地产需求更多在四月份陆续展开，而钢材主流品种多应用于地产前端，从而提振钢铁价格反弹。中间商的备货需求和资源流通带来的区域价格联动效果增强，5月份行情或出现反弹的走势。

　　综合来看5月份的钢材市场依然是现实需求的落地预期和政策修复预期的博弈兑现结果，最终或将出现先抑后扬试图反弹的均价略上移的局面。密切关注未来从国际到国内货币政策和财政政策的变化释放出的信号对大宗商品市场的影响力度，不排除当行情形成共振上涨时，资本的反向操作将会主导一波行情出现下跌，而这种情况出现的概率在当下大环境下相对较低。

　　风险提示：国内稳经济政策超预期、国内经济数据表现超预期、国际货币政策超预期、国际地缘政治走向超预期。